IDC has updated its global smartphone shipment forecast for 2024, predicting a 5.8% increase year-on-year, reaching 1.23 billion units. This optimistic projection is driven by strong growth in affordable Android devices in emerging markets and heightened interest in smartphones with generative AI (GenAI) capabilities in the premium segment.
According to Nabila Popal, IDC’s senior research director, Android devices are projected to grow at a rate nine times faster than iOS, with a 7.1% increase compared to 0.8%. This difference is largely due to intensified competition for Apple in China and a higher comparison base year for Apple.
However, there could be potential benefits for iOS if the GenAI features in the upcoming iPhone 16 receive a positive reception and if Apple manages to form local AI partnerships in China. IDC expects iOS growth to improve in 2025, with a projected 4% year-on-year increase due to the anticipated momentum of Apple Intelligence.
The report also highlights a significant surge in GenAI smartphone adoption, forecasting a 344% growth in this segment, which is expected to represent 18% of the market by the end of 2024. Anthony Scarsella, IDC’s research director, noted that most flagship models are likely to include some GenAI features.
“Although GenAI smartphones are still relatively new, premium flagship models will increasingly adopt GenAI features to distinguish themselves,” said Scarsella. The average selling price for GenAI-enabled smartphones is expected to be more than double that of non-GenAI devices, further fueling the premiumization trend in the industry.
The smartphone market is rebounding following a challenging period. IDC’s data reveals a robust recovery with a 12% growth in the first quarter of 2024, followed by a 9% increase in the second quarter. This upturn has instilled renewed confidence in the industry’s prospects for the remainder of the year.
Similarly, Canalys reported strong growth in the global smartphone market for the second quarter of 2024, with shipments reaching 288.9 million units. The market has experienced growth for three consecutive quarters, driven by innovation in products and improving business conditions.
Reflecting IDC’s findings, Canalys observed a modest 1% increase in shipments for Samsung, maintaining its leading position with 53.5 million units shipped. Apple held the second spot with 45.6 million units, supported by strong performance in North America and emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region.
China’s Xiaomi, known for its competitive product lineup, followed closely with 42.3 million units shipped, securing a 15% market share. Canalys highlighted that Greater China’s growth trajectory now aligns with global trends, driven by improved macroeconomic conditions and increased business confidence among smartphone brands and channels.
In China, local brands are expected to leverage GenAI features to differentiate themselves in the premium segment, aiming to capture rising high-end spending and apply successful strategies seen in global markets.
Canalys Senior Analyst Sanyam Chaurasia noted, “Samsung will likely focus on integrating its Galaxy ecosystem to deliver strong value propositions through flagship models featuring exclusive GenAI capabilities.” Meanwhile, Apple is anticipated to boost replacement demand through its AI strategy, including hybrid models, enhanced privacy features, and personalized Siri functionalities.
Despite these positive developments, Canalys does not expect the smartphone market to achieve double-digit growth in 2024, even with seasonal demand in the latter half of the year. The global technology market analyst firm projects mid-single-digit growth for the smartphone sector, driven by recovering inventory levels, eased import restrictions, and an improved economic climate.
